![]() Before Osiris-Rex arrived on the scene, scientists put the odds of Bennu hitting Earth through the year 2200 at 1-in-2700. The spacecraft is headed back to Earth on a long, roundabout loop after collecting samples from the large, spinning rubble pile of an asteroid, considered one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system. Their findings published in the journal Icarus should also help in charting the course of other asteroids and give Earth a better fighting chance if and when another hazardous space rock heads our way. “So I think that overall, the situation has improved,” he told reporters. While the odds of a strike have risen from 1-in-2,700 to 1-in-1,750 over the next century or two, scientists now have a much better idea of Bennu’s path thanks to NASA’s Osiris-Rex spacecraft, according to Farnocchia. “We shouldn’t be worried about it too much,” said Davide Farnocchia, a scientist with NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, who served as the study’s lead author. The bad news is that the space rock has a slightly greater chance of clobbering Earth than previously thought.īut don’t be alarmed: Scientists reported Wednesday that the odds are still quite low that Bennu will hit us in the next century. (AP) - The good news is that scientists have a better handle on asteroid Bennu’s whereabouts for the next 200 years. One aspect of that work is finding as many near-Earth asteroids as possible - scientists have cataloged more than 26,000 to date, according to NASA.CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. Planetary defense is dedicated to identifying all asteroids that could potentially impact Earth in a meaningful way. Of course, Bennu isn’t the only space rock that scientists worry about. 24, 2182 even on that day, Bennu’s impact probability is only 1 in 2,700. Within that time period, the most concerning date is Sept. As a result, scientists behind new research now say theyre confident that the asteroids total impact probability through 2300 is just 1 in 1,750. ![]() ![]() With that remaining uncertainty, and other similar events potentially occurring in the future, the scientists now say that Bennu’s total impact probability through 2300 is about 1 in 1,750, according to a NASA statement about the new research. How precisely that dance plays out will shape Bennu’s trajectory over the next decades and centuries. In September of that year, Bennu will swing past Earth - not close enough that there’s any risk of an impact, but certainly close enough that Earth’s gravity could nudge the asteroid a bit on its path. However, despite the scientists’ best efforts, predicting Bennu’s course after 2135 is still tricky. The delivery will give scientists the rare opportunity to study asteroid material using all the sophisticated equipment terrestrial laboratories have to offer. In May, the spacecraft and its precious cargo bid farewell to the asteroid and turned back for Earth, where OSIRIS-REx will deposit the sample capsule in September 2023. The spacecraft’s visit to the asteroid culminated in October 2020, when OSIRIS-REx snatched a sample of Bennu to stash away. ![]() Using that data, the team behind the new research were able to fine-tune their understanding of the space rock’s location and movement for nearly two and a half years. Throughout that time, the spacecraft constantly logged its location with respect to Earth and to the asteroid. “We were able to go into orbit, we were able to leave orbit, we were able to get into a variety of imaging angles.” “The trajectory of the spacecraft was really amazing - I compare it to a hummingbird,” Dante Lauretta, a planetary scientist at the University of Arizona, the principal investigator for OSIRIS-REx and an author on the new research, said during the news conference.
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